Morning Bell 18 June

Jessica Amir
June 18, 2020

The Aussie share market futures are suggesting a 0.6% fall at the open. This means we are likely to trim off the week-to-date gain of 2.53%.

COVID-19 cases continued to rise overnight in U.S. states like Arizona and Texas, some of the first to re-open. China has shut down all schools in Beijing and cancelled several domestic flights to slow down the spread of the second wave.

Investors will be watching the unemployment rate which is out at 11:30am. The market is expecting the unemployment rate to rise to 7%, with 125,000 expected to have lost their jobs last month. If these numbers are worse than expected or unemployment is near the 10% mark, like the RBA expects, the market will react negatively. If unemployment is better than expected showing our recovery is ahead of the curve, the market is likely to rally with cyclical stocks like banks, retailers and other consumer spending stocks to do well.

Local trading ideas:

  • Imdex (ASX:IMD) was reiterated as buy by UBS with a price target of $1.30.
  • Ansell (ASX:ANN) was downgraded to a hold by Citi and UBS, given its trading just under its all-time high. While Bell Potter has Ansell as a buy, given its strong balance sheet and room for acquisitions.
  • Brambles (ASX:BXB) has a buy rating from Citi as timber prices have settled and transportation costs have continued to fall along with fuel costs.
  • Carsales (ASX:CAR) is eyeing a earnings recovery this year with Morningstar saying it is undervalued but is maintained as a hold by UBS.
Read Transcript

Well it’s two steps forward one step back for markets this week.

In the U.S. airliners, cruise liners and retailers lost momentum overnight with second wave concerns and weaker than expected housing starts and building permits dragging down the Dow Jones 0.7% in the S&P500 over 0.3% lower snapping their three day winning streak.

Now on the flip side stocks that people can’t seem to live without, Alphabet Google-parent gained 0.4% with Amazon up 1% and Netflix up 2.7% helping the Nasdaq end just 0.2% higher.

Now COVID-19 cases are continuing to rise in states like Arizona and Texas some of the first states in the U.S that reopened.

China has shut down all schools in Beijing and cancelled several  domestic flights to slow second wave of COVID-19 from spreading.

Now these concerns saw the oil price fall about 1% to $37.96 while gold held steady at $1,736 and the iron ore price fell just 0.1% to $102.89.

Now all of which is why the Aussies share market futures are suggesting a drop of 0.6% today, likely to trim off some of that week today profit of 2.5%.

Now what to watch today the biggest caveat of all, the unemployment rate is out at 11:30am.

The market is expecting the unemployment rate to rise to 7% with 125,000 people expected to have lost their jobs last month so if these numbers are worse than expected or the unemployment rate is near that 10% mark that the RBA expects, the market will likely react negatively.

But if unemployment is better than expected showing our recovery is ahead of the curve, the market is likely to rally with cyclical stocks like banks retailers and other consumer spending stocks to do well, so keep an eye on that.

Now to four trading ideas, well firstly Imdex (ASX:IMD) the mining tech company was reiterated as a UBS buy noting although the mining industry and commodity prices are improving, expect a slow recovery which is why its price target is sitting at $1.30.

Now secondly, Ansell (ASX:ANN) was downgraded from a buy to a hold by Citi, it’s also a hold for UBS given its trading just a whisker off its all-time high price.

But Bell Potter says given its balance sheet is exceptionally strong there’s room for acquisitions and its financial results are out on the 25th of August and so should be a buy.

Now thirdly Brambles (ASX:BXB) they had their buy rating reiterated by Citi as timber prices have settled and transportation costs have continued to fall along with fuel costs both or all boding well for the pallet business Brambles.

And fourthly, Carsales CAR they had an exceptional lift of over 6% yesterday after announcing that they are eyeing a earnings recovery this year given the increased numbers on their website, Korean operations are performing well, not so in Brazil given COVID-19 spikes there.

Morningstar says Carsales is undervalued, UBS has it as a hold.

I’m Jessica Amir with Bell Direct, happy trading and stay safe.

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